Browsing by Subject "Climate change"
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- ItemOpen AccessAfrica and climate change(1996) Eleri, EwahSub-Saharan Africa's past and present contribution to the build-up of greenhouse gases has been low; the region therefore does not pose a major threat to the global climate. Nonetheless, the occurrence of climate change might pose formidable challenges to already deteriorating conditions of human development in that region. Both national contributions to emissions of greenhouse gases and the presence of considerable size of forest cover as sinks nevertheless vary within Africa. Much remains uncertain as to how climate change will affect Africa; and the probable responses by countries, sub-national actors and external actors to several issues in the regime. The relatively recent emergence of the issue and the uncertainties facing key actors in Africa have limited policy making on climate change. Moreover, since climate has not yet figured as a priority issue area for countries actors, little nuances in differences among countries have emerged. The impact of international measures, rather than the actual occurrence of climate change, might stimulate and define policy-making and the development of strategies on climate change. In the pre-regime formulation stage, the stake and obligations of industrialising countries were, and indeed continue to be, ill-defined. As the threat to national interests was not apparent, state agencies were not adequately mobilised. After the first COP in Berlin, March 1995, we have seen an increasing degree of tangible international decisions. Of importance to African countries is the initiation of the pilot phase of Joint Implementation and the adoption of the Global Environmental Facility as the key financial transfer mechanism. Depending on the volume of financial and technological transfer that industrialised countries are ready to make available, states in Africa are likely to step up activities in wooing investments in energy and land-use sectors. Should post-Berlin developments stimulate demand for emerging markets in the South to set emission reduction targets, an incentive will arise for South Africa and Nigeria to engage in active climate diplomacy. Finally, the integration of climate concerns into development assistance would probably herald the emergence of climate conditionality on debt and aid. This scenario will probably ring the wake up call for most Sub-Saharan countries, and would mark the incorporation of climate politics into mainstream African international economic relations.
- ItemOpen AccessAssessing the role of temperature and air pollution in exacerbating childhood asthma in Cape Town, South Africa(2022) Phakisi, Tshepo Kingsley; Rother, Hanna-Andrea; Godsmark, Christie Nicole; Weimann, EddaChildhood asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases worldwide, including in South Africa. There has been substantial evidence on the role of air pollution in asthma exacerbation but limited research on the role of climate change and how the interaction between climate change and air pollution is affecting childhood asthma, specifically in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Temperature changes can be used as an effect of climate change to investigate the association between climate change, air pollution and childhood asthma. This study, therefore, used a case study approach aimed at examining the interaction between air pollution and temperature in exacerbating childhood asthma focusing on clinical data obtained from Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital, air quality data (City of Cape Town) and temperature data (South African Weather Services) for Cape Town, South Africa for three study years (2009, 2014 and 2019). The protocol (Part A) of the mini dissertation describes childhood asthma literature globally and in LMICs and specifically in South Africa. It also discusses the increasing incidences and prevalence of the disease and possible causes such as air pollution and climate change. Furthermore, it discusses the vulnerability of children to the exposure of interest, being air pollution (PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and O3) and climate change (i.e., temperature). Subsequently, the development of air quality standards is discussed, specifically concerning whether they consider the specific children's vulnerability to exposures. The protocol then describes the study population and methodologies for conducting this study. The journal ready article (Part B) presents the findings of the study. Spearman's correlation was used to measure the degree of association between temperature variables and air pollutants. The results indicated that diurnal temperature was associated with PM2.5 (r=0.579: p< 0.01) and PM10 (r=0.505: p< 0.01). A Poisson regression analysis was applied to evaluate the relationship between asthma exacerbation with air pollutants and temperature variables. In a univariate analysis there was a statistically significant relationship between asthma exacerbation and diurnal temperature for 2019, IRR=0.98 (95% CI,0.97 – 0.99) p< 0.05, maximum temperature 2014, IRR=0.99(95% CI, 0.98 - 1.00) p< 0.05 and for 2019, IRR=0.98(95% CI, 0.97 - 0.99) p< 0.01, average temperature 2014, IRR=0.99(95% CI, 0.98 - 1.00) p< 0.05 and for 2019, IRR=0.98(95% CI, 0.97 - 0.99) p< 0.01. Using a multivariate analysis there v of 110 was no significant relationship between childhood asthma exacerbation and air pollutants (PM10, NO2 and O3) except for PM2.5 IRR=0.12(95% CI, 0.01 - 0.81) p< 0.05. Diurnal temperature statistically significant childhood asthma predictor for 2009, IRR=1.02(95% CI, 1.00 - 1.05) p< 0.05 and for 2014, IRR=0.97(95% CI, 0.96 - 0.99) p< 0.01. Temperature increase, therefore, seems to be related to asthma exacerbation. More research is needed on the relationship between diurnal temperature, childhood asthma, and air pollutants to inform adaptation strategies. The findings of this study are important for the development of climate change and health adaptation and prevention strategies in South Africa, particularly in relation to heat adaptation. These findings are also relevant for the development of air quality guidelines and guidelines to address children, as the most vulnerable population to environmental health exposures. The appendices (Part C) present the analyses that were not included in the protocol (Part A) and article (Part B). These also include documents relating to the study such as ethics approval and permission to conduct research by different entities.
- ItemOpen AccessClimate and environmental change along the East Coast of South Africa: perspectives from a local marine resource- dependent community and scientific researchers(2019) Duba, Tania; Hermes, Juliet; Blamey, Ross; Raemaekers, SergeCoastal areas are very susceptible to environmental problems such as sea-level rise, coastal flooding, increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, and changes in marine ecosystems that are arising from global climate change and variability. In the South African context, the Agulhas Current is important for its crucial role in regional climate and weather as well as the fishing livelihood of the coastal communities along the east coast of South Africa. Despite the efforts made to understand the Agulhas Current and the impacts of climate and environmental change, the shelf region remains poorly understood mostly due to the difficulties associated with observing and modelling such strong currents. The marine resource users in the fishing communities along the east coast of South Africa show long term dependence on the neighbouring ocean going back at least three generations. These communities provide long term, rich, detailed, and contextualized environmental knowledge from their daily interactions with the sea. This study seeks to investigate the local climate and environmental change knowledge of the fishers based on their own observations, perceptions, and experiences. The convergence/divergence of the marine resource user’s knowledge with the traditional scientific findings is explored using a broad, participatory methodology including desktop literature analysis, interviews and an adopted version of the Rapid Vulnerability Assessment (RVA). Results show that fishers in Tshani-Mankosi have observed changes in the rainfall, sea surface temperature and wind patterns in their community. According to the fishers, sea surface temperature and annual rainfall seem to have decreased while winds and rainfall related extreme events have increased. Similar observations were noticed in the scientific research at a larger spatial and temporal scale. Key differences and similarities between the two types of knowledge come from factors such as knowledge construction processes, scales, type of data output and parameters of interest. Finally, the study reveals opportunities and challenges of research collaboration between the community and scientific researchers.
- ItemOpen AccessClimate Change, Migration, and Allergic Respiratory Diseases: An Update for the Allergist(BioMed Central Ltd, 2011) D'Amato, Gennaro; Rottem, Menachem; Dahl, Ronald; Blaiss, Michael; Ridolo, Erminia; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Rosario, Nelson; Motala, Cassim; Ansotegui, Ignacio; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; the WAO Special Committee on Climate Change and AllergyLocal climate changes can impact on a number of factors, including air pollution, that have been shown to influence both the development and attacks of allergic respiratory diseases, and they thus represent an important consideration for the allergist. Migration involves exposure to a new set of pollutants and allergens and changes in housing conditions, diet and accessibility to medical services, all of which are likely to affect migrants' health. This review provides an update on climate change, migration, and allergy and discusses factors for consideration when making recommendations for local allergy service provision, and for assessing an individual patient's environmental exposures.
- ItemOpen AccessConsistent phenological shifts in the making of a biodiversity hotspot: the Cape flora(BioMed Central Ltd, 2011) Warren, Ben; Bakker, Freek; Bellstedt, Dirk; Bytebier, Benny; ClaSZen-Bockhoff, Regine; Dreyer, Leanne; Edwards, Dawn; Forest, Felix; Galley, Chloe; Hardy, Christopher; Linder, H Peter; Muasya, A Muthama; Mummenhoff, Klaus; Oberlander, Kenneth; QuintBACKGROUND: The best documented survival responses of organisms to past climate change on short (glacial-interglacial) timescales are distributional shifts. Despite ample evidence on such timescales for local adaptations of populations at specific sites, the long-term impacts of such changes on evolutionary significant units in response to past climatic change have been little documented. Here we use phylogenies to reconstruct changes in distribution and flowering ecology of the Cape flora - South Africa's biodiversity hotspot - through a period of past (Neogene and Quaternary) changes in the seasonality of rainfall over a timescale of several million years. RESULTS: Forty-three distributional and phenological shifts consistent with past climatic change occur across the flora, and a comparable number of clades underwent adaptive changes in their flowering phenology (9 clades; half of the clades investigated) as underwent distributional shifts (12 clades; two thirds of the clades investigated). Of extant Cape angiosperm species, 14-41% have been contributed by lineages that show distributional shifts consistent with past climate change, yet a similar proportion (14-55%) arose from lineages that shifted flowering phenology. CONCLUSIONS: Adaptive changes in ecology at the scale we uncover in the Cape and consistent with past climatic change have not been documented for other floras. Shifts in climate tolerance appear to have been more important in this flora than is currently appreciated, and lineages that underwent such shifts went on to contribute a high proportion of the flora's extant species diversity. That shifts in phenology, on an evolutionary timescale and on such a scale, have not yet been detected for other floras is likely a result of the method used; shifts in flowering phenology cannot be detected in the fossil record.
- ItemOpen AccessEstimating farmers’ willingness to pay for weather index-based crop insurance uptake in West Africa: Insight from a pilot initiative in Southwestern Burkina Faso(Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2018-06-14) Fonta, William M; Sanfo, Safietou; Kedir, Abbi M; Thiam, Djiby RWeather index-based crop insurance is increasingly becoming important as a risk mitigation strategy that farmers may use to mitigate adverse climate shocks and natural disasters encountered during farming. While Europe, North America, and Asia account for 20.1%, 55%, and 19.5% of the total agricultural insurance premium worldwide, respectively, Africa accounts for only 0.5% of the world insurance industry. One of the key reasons advanced against the low index insurance participation rate in Africa is the failure to involve farm households at the initial conceptualization and design of pilot initiatives. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to design an improved participatory methodology that could help elicit information on the value placed by farm households in Southwestern Burkina Faso on a new weather index-based crop insurance management initiative. A key concept in the improved participatory methodology is that of the willingness to pay (WTP) of farm households for the scheme. Knowledge of the maximum amount that farmers are willing to pay for the scheme can help insurance policy providers and public policy makers to design and put in place measures that sustain index insurance schemes in a developing country context and improve welfare among participating farmers.
- ItemOpen AccessExplaining and responding to the Ebola epidemic(2015-03-04) Benatar, SolomonAbstract The Ebola epidemic in West Africa is not merely a biomedical problem that can be seen in isolation and dealt with only through emergency medical rescue processes. The ethical dilemmas surfaced by this epidemic are also not confined to the usual micro-ethical problems associated with medical care and medical research. The pandemic, as one of many manifestations of failed human and social development that has brought the world to dangerous ‘tipping points’, requires deep introspection and action to address upstream causal processes.
- ItemOpen AccessIdentifying biologically meaningful hot-weather events using threshold temperatures that affect life-history(Public Library of Science, 2013) Cunningham, Susan J; Kruger, Andries C; Nxumalo, Mthobisi P; Hockey, Philip A RIncreases in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves are frequently evoked in climate change predictions. However, there is no universal definition of a heat wave. Recent, intense hot weather events have caused mass mortalities of birds, bats and even humans, making the definition and prediction of heat wave events that have the potential to impact populations of different species an urgent priority. One possible technique for defining biologically meaningful heat waves is to use threshold temperatures (T thresh ) above which known fitness costs are incurred by species of interest. We set out to test the utility of this technique using T thresh values that, when exceeded, affect aspects of the fitness of two focal southern African bird species: the southern pied babbler Turdiodes bicolor (T thresh = 35.5°C) and the common fiscal Lanius collaris (T thresh = 33°C). We used these T thresh values to analyse trends in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves of magnitude relevant to the focal species, as well as the annual number of hot days (maximum air temperature > T thresh ), in north-western South Africa between 1961 and 2010. Using this technique, we were able to show that, while all heat wave indices increased during the study period, most rapid increases for both species were in the annual number of hot days and in the maximum intensity (and therefore intensity variance) of biologically meaningful heat waves. Importantly, we also showed that warming trends were not uniform across the study area and that geographical patterns in warming allowed both areas of high risk and potential climate refugia to be identified. We discuss the implications of the trends we found for our focal species, and the utility of the T thresh technique as a conservation tool.
- ItemOpen AccessInvestigating strategies for addressing child and adolescent mental health following exposure to extreme weather events in low- and middle-income countries: A scoping review(2022) Kadota, Molly Kaelin; Rother, Hanna-Andrea; Jagarnath, MerylThe inevitability of an increase in extreme weather events (EWE) due to climate change will likely influence every determinant of human health and wellbeing. Children and adolescents, defined as anyone under the age of 19, are among the most susceptible because of their unique vulnerabilities (i.e. physiologically, developmentally, biologically, and behaviourally) and lifespans. The effects on physical health are generally well documented, and many climate change adaptation strategies have begun to include them in their considerations. However, the implications of EWE exposure on mental health are less understood, particularly within low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Populations residing in LMICs are especially vulnerable because of pre-existing conditions like already extreme weather, lack of resources, poor economic conditions, weak health systems, high burden of disease, and poor governance. Therefore, children and adolescents in LMICs maintain a heightened vulnerability to experiencing adverse effects. In Part A, a preliminary literature review determined the breadth of information documenting child and adolescent mental health outcomes following exposure to EWE. Research, mainly from high-income countries (HICs) or international organisations, demonstrating an association between mental health impacts and climate change, focused primarily on adult populations, has increased substantially over the last few years. Experiencing an EWE in childhood or adolescence likely leads to direct (e.g. anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, behavioural disorders, and suicidal ideations), indirect (e.g. displacement, loss of sense of place, violence, malnutrition, developmental delays, and disruption of education), and overarching (e.g. general climate anxiety about impending threats) mental health impacts, presenting in both the short- and long-term. The goals of adaptation and mitigation strategies were also presented in the protocol to determine the potential for specific mental health strategies. In Part B, then, a scoping review was conducted to provide a narrative of where adaptation, resilience, and mitigation strategies in LMICs address, and where they do not, child and adolescent mental health impacts following exposures to EWE. A search conducted in June-August 2021 of 12 online databases from the Pubmed, EBSCOhost, and Scopus platforms and grey literature sites like Google Scholar, Microsoft Academic, and NGO pages identified 5,073 relevant records. Search results were limited to documents written in English and filtered by a 2000-2021 date range. In the current LMICs climate change strategies, the review highlighted a general lack of consideration for child and adolescent mental health and resilience. Therefore, eight main themes recurring in the literature were identified as integral components for including child and adolescent mental health in future national strategies and policymaking discussions. The themes provide general guidance, but their addition necessitates country-specific conceptualisation to determine technical considerations (e.g. funding and responsibility) and relevance. This review, therefore, emphasised the necessity for LMICs to begin including child and adolescent mental health in climate change strategies, highlighted key recommendations that were applicable in the LMICs context, and illuminated still existing gaps in the literature and potential areas for future research.
- ItemOpen AccessMalaria patterns across altitudinal zones of Mount Elgon following intensified control and prevention programs in Uganda(2020-06-17) Siya, Aggrey; Kalule, Bosco J; Ssentongo, Benard; Lukwa, Akim T; Egeru, AnthonyBackground Malaria remains a major tropical vector-borne disease of immense public health concern owing to its debilitating effects in sub-Saharan Africa. Over the past 30 years, the high altitude areas in Eastern Africa have been reported to experience increased cases of malaria. Governments including that of the Republic of Uganda have responded through intensifying programs that can potentially minimize malaria transmission while reducing associated fatalities. However, malaria patterns following these intensified control and prevention interventions in the changing climate remains widely unexplored in East African highland regions. This study thus analyzed malaria patterns across altitudinal zones of Mount Elgon, Uganda. Methods Times-series data on malaria cases (2011–2017) from five level III local health centers occurring across three altitudinal zones; low, mid and high altitude was utilized. Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation regression and Mann Kendall trend test were used to analyze malaria patterns. Vegetation attributes from the three altitudinal zones were analyzed using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to determine the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to project malaria patterns for a 7 year period. Results Malaria across the three zones declined over the study period. The hotspots for malaria were highly variable over time in all the three zones. Rainfall played a significant role in influencing malaria burdens across the three zones. Vegetation had a significant influence on malaria in the higher altitudes. Meanwhile, in the lower altitude, human population had a significant positive correlation with malaria cases. Conclusions Despite observed decline in malaria cases across the three altitudinal zones, the high altitude zone became a malaria hotspot as cases variably occurred in the zone. Rainfall played the biggest role in malaria trends. Human population appeared to influence malaria incidences in the low altitude areas partly due to population concentration in this zone. Malaria control interventions ought to be strengthened and strategically designed to achieve no malaria cases across all the altitudinal zones. Integration of climate information within malaria interventions can also strengthen eradication strategies of malaria in such differentiated altitudinal zones.
- ItemOpen AccessNon-optimal apparent temperature and cardiovascular mortality: the association in Puducherry, India between 2011 and 2020(2023-02-08) Shrikhande, Shreya S; Pedder, Hugo; Röösli, Martin; Dalvie, Mohammad A; Lakshmanasamy, Ravivarman; Gasparrini, Antonio; Utzinger, Jürg; Cissé, GuéladioBackground Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), the leading cause of death worldwide, are sensitive to temperature. In light of the reported climate change trends, it is important to understand the burden of CVDs attributable to temperature, both hot and cold. The association between CVDs and temperature is region-specific, with relatively few studies focusing on low-and middle-income countries. This study investigates this association in Puducherry, a district in southern India lying on the Bay of Bengal, for the first time. Methods Using in-hospital CVD mortality data and climate data from the Indian Meteorological Department, we analyzed the association between apparent temperature (Tapp) and in-hospital CVD mortalities in Puducherry between 2011 and 2020. We used a case-crossover model with a binomial likelihood distribution combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to capture the delayed and non-linear trends over a 21-day lag period to identify the optimal temperature range for Puducherry. The results are expressed as the fraction of CVD mortalities attributable to heat and cold, defined relative to the optimal temperature. We also performed stratified analyses to explore the associations between Tapp and age-and-sex, grouped and considered together, and different types of CVDs. Sensitivity analyses were performed, including using a quasi-Poisson time-series approach. Results We found that the optimal temperature range for Puducherry is between 30°C and 36°C with respect to CVDs. Both cold and hot non-optimal Tapp were associated with an increased risk of overall in-hospital CVD mortalities, resulting in a U-shaped association curve. Cumulatively, up to 17% of the CVD deaths could be attributable to non-optimal temperatures, with a slightly higher burden attributable to heat (9.1%) than cold (8.3%). We also found that males were more vulnerable to colder temperature; females above 60 years were more vulnerable to heat while females below 60 years were affected by both heat and cold. Mortality with cerebrovascular accidents was associated more with heat compared to cold, while ischemic heart diseases did not seem to be affected by temperature. Conclusion Both heat and cold contribute to the burden of CVDs attributable to non-optimal temperatures in the tropical Puducherry. Our study also identified the age-and-sex and CVD type differences in temperature attributable CVD mortalities. Further studies from India could identify regional associations, inform our understanding of the health implications of climate change in India and enhance the development of regional and contextual climate-health action-plans.
- ItemOpen AccessPhenological changes in the Southern Hemisphere(Public Library of Science, 2013) Chambers, Lynda E; Altwegg, Res; Barbraud, Christophe; Barnard, Phoebe; Beaumont, Linda J; Crawford, Robert J M; Durant, Joel M; Hughes, Lesley; Keatley, Marie R; Low, MattCurrent evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori . We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.
- ItemOpen AccessPossible climate change impacts on large hydroelectricity schemes in southern Africa(University of Cape Town, 2007) Mukheibir, PThere is growing concern that developing countries, such as South Africa, should reduce their coal dependence for energy generation and look to other cleaner technologies. Hydroelectricity is one such option. A number of potential large hydro sites have been identified in Southern Africa, which form part of the Southern African Power Pool. However, limited information exists on the impact of climate change on these sites and its effect on the viability of the hydroelectric schemes. Using downscaled global circulation model information, projected climate impacts and the potential impact these may have on future hydro schemes are discussed.
- ItemOpen AccessSimulating the impact of climate change on maize production in Ethiopia, East Africa(Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2018-02-13) Abera, Kidist; Crespo, Olivier; Seid, Jemal; Mequanent, FasilBackground: Climate change is expected to signifcantly impact agricultural production across Africa. While a number of studies assessed this impact in semi-arid southern Africa, or tropical West Africa, only a limited number took interest in the mountainous and climatically varying Ethiopia of eastern Africa. This study assesses the impact of climate change on maize production in three representative sites of maize growing areas in Ethiopia. The assessment relies on the DSSAT crop model simulation of maize under current climate and future projections (19 Global Climate Models and 2 Representative Concentration Pathways). The period 1980–2010 was used to represent the baseline climate, while future climate projections cover three periods; near term (2010–2039), mid-century (2040–2069) and end-of-century (2070–2099). Climate, soil and crop management data were collected for the study sites representing the maize growing areas in the country. Results: Results show that maize yields will decrease by up to 43 and 24% by the end of the century at Bako and Melkassa stations, respectively, while simulated maize yield in Hawassa show an increase of 51%. On the one hand, rainfall variability and rising temperatures are determining factors explaining yield decrease in Bako and Melkassa, while projected rainfall increase in Hawassa explain simulated yield increases. Conclusion: The terrain and climate high variability of Ethiopia is emphasizing the extremely diferent responses of current agricultural systems to climate change. Though adaptation approached can address some negative impacts, and in some case can take advantage of changes, this study reveals that dedicated local knowledge is necessary for national and regional decision makers to respond with local relevance to a global exposure, in order to face food security challenges.
- ItemOpen AccessA socio-ecological approach for identifying and contextualising spatial ecosystem-based adaptation priorities at the sub-national level(Public Library of Science, 2016) Bourne, Amanda; Holness, Stephen; Holden, Petra; Scorgie, Sarshen; Donatti, Camila I; Midgley, GuyClimate change adds an additional layer of complexity to existing sustainable development and biodiversity conservation challenges. The impacts of global climate change are felt locally, and thus local governance structures will increasingly be responsible for preparedness and local responses. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) options are gaining prominence as relevant climate change solutions. Local government officials seldom have an appropriate understanding of the role of ecosystem functioning in sustainable development goals, or access to relevant climate information. Thus the use of ecosystems in helping people adapt to climate change is limited partially by the lack of information on where ecosystems have the highest potential to do so. To begin overcoming this barrier, Conservation South Africa in partnership with local government developed a socio-ecological approach for identifying spatial EbA priorities at the sub-national level. Using GIS-based multi-criteria analysis and vegetation distribution models, the authors have spatially integrated relevant ecological and social information at a scale appropriate to inform local level political, administrative, and operational decision makers. This is the first systematic approach of which we are aware that highlights spatial priority areas for EbA implementation. Nodes of socio-ecological vulnerability are identified, and the inclusion of areas that provide ecosystem services and ecological resilience to future climate change is innovative. The purpose of this paper is to present and demonstrate a methodology for combining complex information into user-friendly spatial products for local level decision making on EbA. The authors focus on illustrating the kinds of products that can be generated from combining information in the suggested ways, and do not discuss the nuance of climate models nor present specific technical details of the model outputs here. Two representative case studies from rural South Africa demonstrate the replicability of this approach in rural and peri-urban areas of other developing and least developed countries around the world.
- ItemOpen AccessSouth African research in the Southern Ocean: New opportunities but serious challenges(2013) Treasure, Anne M; Moloney, Coleen L; Bester, Marthán N; McQuaid, Christopher D; Findlay, Ken P; Best, Peter B; Cowan, Don A; de Bruyn, P J Nico; Dorrington, Rosemary A; Fagereng, Åke; Froneman, P William; Grantham, Geoff H; Hunt, Brian P V; Meiklejohn, K Ian; Pakhomov, Evgeny A; Roychoudhury, Alakendra N; Ryan, Peter G; Smith, Valdon R; Chown, Steven L; Ansorge, Isabelle JSouth Africa has a long track record in Southern Ocean and Antarctic research and has recently invested considerable funds in acquiring new infrastructure for ongoing support of this research. This infrastructure includes a new base at Marion Island and a purpose-built ice capable research vessel, which greatly expand research opportunities. Despite this investment, South Africa's standing as a participant in this critical field is threatened by confusion, lack of funding, lack of consultation and lack of transparency. The research endeavour is presently bedevilled by political manoeuvring among groups with divergent interests that too often have little to do with science, while past and present contributors of research are excluded from discussions that aim to formulate research strategy. This state of affairs is detrimental to the country's aims of developing a leadership role in climate change and Antarctic research and squanders both financial and human capital.
- ItemOpen AccessTemperatures in Excess of Critical Thresholds Threaten Nestling Growth and Survival in A Rapidly-Warming Arid Savanna: A Study of Common Fiscals(Public Library of Science, 2013) Cunningham, Susan J; Martin, Rowan O; Hojem, Carryn L; Hockey, Philip A RFrequency, duration, and intensity of hot-weather events are all predicted to increase with climate warming. Despite this, mechanisms by which temperature increases affect individual fitness and drive population-level changes are poorly understood. We investigated the link between daily maximum air temperature (t max ) and breeding success of Kalahari common fiscals ( Lanius collaris ) in terms of the daily effect on nestling body-mass gain, and the cumulative effect on size and age of fledglings. High t max reduced mass gain of younger, but not older nestlings and average nestling-period t max did not affect fledgling size. Instead, the frequency with which t max exceeded critical thresholds (t crit s) significantly reduced fledging body mass (t crit = 33°C) and tarsus length (t crit = 37°C), as well as delaying fledging (t crit = 35°C). Nest failure risk was 4.2% per day therefore delays reduced fledging probability. Smaller size at fledging often correlates with reduced lifetime fitness and might also underlie documented adult body-size reductions in desert birds in relation to climate warming. Temperature thresholds above which organisms incur fitness costs are probably common, as physiological responses to temperature are non-linear. Understanding the shape of the relationship between temperature and fitness has implications for our ability to predict species’ responses to climate change.
- ItemRestrictedThe development and climate nexus: The case of sub-Saharan Africa(2003) Davidson, Ogunlade; Halsnaes, Kirsten; Huq, Saleemul; Kok, Marcel; Metz, Bert; Sokona, Youba; Verhagen, JanThis paper explores an alternative approach to future climate policies in developing countries. Although climate change seems marginal compared to the pressing issues of poverty alleviation and economic development, it is becoming clear that the realisation of development goals may be hampered by climate change. However, development can be shaped in such a way as to achieve its goals and at the same time reduce vulnerability to climate change, thereby facilitating sustainable development that realises economic, social, local and global environmental goals. This approach has been coined the 'development first approach', in which a future climate regime should focus on development strategies with ancillary climate benefits and increase the capability of developing countries to implement these. This is anticipated to offer· a possible positive way out of the current deadlock between North and South in the climate negotiations. First, elements are presented for an integrated approach to development ahd climate; second, the approach is elaborated for food and energy security in sub-Saharan Africa; and third, possibilities are outlined for international mechanisms to support such integrated development and climate strategies.
- ItemOpen AccessUnderstanding diarrhoeal diseases in response to climate variability and drought in Cape Town, South Africa: a mixed methods approach(BioMed Central, 2023-08-18) Lee, Tristan T.; Dalvie, Mohamed A.; Röösli, Martin; Merten, Sonja; Kwiatkowski, Marek; Mahomed, Hassan; Sweijd, Neville; Cissé, GuéladioBackground The climate of southern Africa is expected to become hotter and drier with more frequent severe droughts and the incidence of diarrhoea to increase. From 2015 to 2018, Cape Town, South Africa, experienced a severe drought which resulted in extreme water conservation efforts. We aimed to gain a more holistic understanding of the relationship between diarrhoea in young children and climate variability in a system stressed by water scarcity. Methods Using a mixed-methods approach, we explored diarrhoeal disease incidence in children under 5 years between 2010 to 2019 in Cape Town, primarily in the public health system through routinely collected diarrhoeal incidence and weather station data. We developed a negative binomial regression model to understand the relationship between temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity on incidence of diarrhoea with dehydration. We conducted in-depth interviews with stakeholders in the fields of health, environment, and human development on perceptions around diarrhoea and health-related interventions both prior to and over the drought, and analysed them through the framework method. Results From diarrhoeal incidence data, the diarrhoea with dehydration incidence decreased over the decade studied, e.g. reduction of 64.7% in 2019 [95% confidence interval (CI): 5.5–7.2%] compared to 2010, with no increase during the severe drought period. Over the hot dry diarrhoeal season (November to May), the monthly diarrhoea with dehydration incidence increased by 7.4% (95% CI: 4.5–10.3%) per 1 °C increase in temperature and 2.6% (95% CI: 1.7–3.5%) per 1% increase in relative humidity in the unlagged model. Stakeholder interviews found that extensive and sustained diarrhoeal interventions were perceived to be responsible for the overall reduction in diarrhoeal incidence and mortality over the prior decade. During the drought, as diarrhoeal interventions were maintained, the expected increase in incidence in the public health sector did not occur. Conclusions We found that that diarrhoeal incidence has decreased over the last decade and that incidence is strongly influenced by local temperature and humidity, particularly over the hot dry season. While climate change and extreme weather events especially stress systems supporting vulnerable populations such as young children, maintaining strong and consistent public health interventions helps to reduce negative health impacts.
- ItemOpen AccessWhat drives farmers to make top-down or bottom-up adaptation to climate change and fluctuations? A comparative study on 3 cases of apple farming in Japan and South Africa(Public Library of Science, 2015) Fujisawa, Mariko; Kobayashi, Kazuhiko; Johnston, Peter; New, MarkAgriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change. Farmers have been exposed to multiple stressors including climate change, and they have managed to adapt to those risks. The adaptation actions undertaken by farmers and their decision making are, however, only poorly understood. By studying adaptation practices undertaken by apple farmers in three regions: Nagano and Kazuno in Japan and Elgin in South Africa, we categorize the adaptation actions into two types: farmer initiated bottom-up adaptation and institution led top-down adaptation. We found that the driver which differentiates the type of adaptation likely adopted was strongly related to the farmers' characteristics, particularly their dependence on the institutions, e.g. the farmers' cooperative, in selling their products. The farmers who rely on the farmers' cooperative for their sales are likely to adopt the institution-led adaptation, whereas the farmers who have established their own sales channels tend to start innovative actions by bottom-up. We further argue that even though the two types have contrasting features, the combinations of the both types of adaptations could lead to more successful adaptation particularly in agriculture. This study also emphasizes that more farm-level studies for various crops and regions are warranted to provide substantial feedbacks to adaptation policy.